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[Python] Extreme trends in GSL (Growing Season Length) due to missing years in ERA5-Land based...

Discussão em 'Python' iniciado por Stack, Setembro 16, 2025.

  1. Stack

    Stack Membro Participativo

    I calculated the Growing Season Length (GSL) index for the 1950–2023 period in Turkey using ERA5-Land daily mean temperature data. According to the definition:

    • First, find the first occurrence of at least 6 consecutive days with daily mean temperature > 5 °C.
    • Then, after July 1st (NH), find the first occurrence of at least 6 consecutive days with daily mean temperature < 5 °C.
    • The number of days between these two dates is recorded as GSL.

    The issue:

    • In coastal areas or warmer regions, the second condition (6 consecutive days < 5 °C) may never occur in some years, so GSL cannot be calculated and remains NaN.
    • For example, between 2000–2023, in some pixels GSL is missing for years like 2004, 2007, 2009, and 2012.
    • When I compute trends (e.g., Mann-Kendall), these missing years result in artificially high positive or negative trends in some pixels, which are not realistic.

    My questions:

    • How should I handle such missing years before performing trend analysis?

    What I tried:

    • Implemented GSL following the ETCCDI definition with ERA5-Land daily mean temperatures (1950–2023).
    • Calculated GSL pixel-wise using xarray + numpy.
    • Applied Mann-Kendall trend test on the yearly GSL time series. What I expected:
    • A realistic spatial distribution of GSL trends, e.g., gradual lengthening or shortening in certain regions.
    • Missing years to have minimal influence on long-term trends. What happened instead:
    • Pixels with missing years (due to no 6-day <5 °C period) show very large artificial trends (sometimes >±10 days/decade), which are not climatologically reasonable.

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